An internal Democrat poll leaked to a radio personality at the end of last week, shows that the current set of public polls may be way off. This internal poll shows Barack Obama with a 2-point lead over John McCain. This is well within the margin of error. One could saythat is probably an outlier. Maybe....but there are a few tell-tale signs that suggest other wise.
First, John Murtha is doing everything he can to lose Western PA for Obama. He told the two major Pittsburgh newspapers that his part of the state are racists or do not like change. Then after apologizing for his comments, he opened his mouth again and stated that this part of the state are "rednecks". I guess he considers that an upgrade to racist. This may have a small impact on the polls, but a 8-11%. I don't think so. There has to be more to it than just Murtha.
Second, this is the one battle ground state where John McCain has his largest deficit. Why is he focused on PA? Why would he not spend more time and money in Iowa or Colorado or even New Mexico where the polls don't show quite a dramatic gap? John McCain and Sarah Palin will make four stops here in three days. Palin has added a stop in Beaver, a Democrat strong-hold, on Thursday. This was just added to the schedule today.
Third, in a new CNN article tonight, "Rendell "still a little nervous" about Penn., asks Obama to return. If the public polls are correct, why is Rendell so nervous? The article states:
Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia.
Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.
It appears he is not the only one nervous. Several union leaders have stated that they are facing resistance from their members to voting for Obama. Teachers Unions have been on the phones to their members as well taking polls to gauge which candidate has their support.
With this information, it begs the question......If the polls in Pennsylvania are off by 9 points, what do other internal state polls look like? If you add even a five point error in McCain's favor to most state polls, Obama loses the election.