An internal Democrat poll leaked to a radio personality at the end of last week, shows that the current set of public polls may be way off. This internal poll shows Barack Obama with a 2-point lead over John McCain. This is well within the margin of error. One could saythat is probably an outlier. Maybe....but there are a few tell-tale signs that suggest other wise.
First, John Murtha is doing everything he can to lose Western PA for Obama. He told the two major Pittsburgh newspapers that his part of the state are racists or do not like change. Then after apologizing for his comments, he opened his mouth again and stated that this part of the state are "rednecks". I guess he considers that an upgrade to racist. This may have a small impact on the polls, but a 8-11%. I don't think so. There has to be more to it than just Murtha.
Second, this is the one battle ground state where John McCain has his largest deficit. Why is he focused on PA? Why would he not spend more time and money in Iowa or Colorado or even New Mexico where the polls don't show quite a dramatic gap? John McCain and Sarah Palin will make four stops here in three days. Palin has added a stop in Beaver, a Democrat strong-hold, on Thursday. This was just added to the schedule today.
Third, in a new CNN article tonight, "Rendell "still a little nervous" about Penn., asks Obama to return. If the public polls are correct, why is Rendell so nervous? The article states:
Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia.
Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.
It appears he is not the only one nervous. Several union leaders have stated that they are facing resistance from their members to voting for Obama. Teachers Unions have been on the phones to their members as well taking polls to gauge which candidate has their support.
With this information, it begs the question......If the polls in Pennsylvania are off by 9 points, what do other internal state polls look like? If you add even a five point error in McCain's favor to most state polls, Obama loses the election.
Posts
36 comments:
I am in Florida. I don't think the polls are accurate here either. After seeing Palin's crowd at The Villages, I think the polls are overstated.
The same things happened to the polls in the primaries with Hillary. The exit polls were way off too.
I read an article online a week ago that said in the past approx. 40-50% of people being polled were hang-ups. This year they say the hang-ups are approx. 60-70%. It is difficult to get an accurate count if the majority of voters don’t participate.
This has been the nastiest campaign in my lifetime. People are actually frightened to say they are voting for McCain. You may think that is ridiculous, but I live equidistant to you on the other side of Pittsburgh in a neighborhood similar to yours and the threat does not seem real. But the rest of my family live in Pittsburgh and they are prepared for violence. It is predicted that if Obama loses we will have a violent uprising.
It doesn’t matter if a threat is real; it just needs to be voiced to make an impact. Since we have secret ballots, some people will probably say one thing and vote another, so polls may not tell the real story. My family is Democratically connected and will put on a good front, but they will not be voting for Obama and neither are their friends. I am going to try and have faith that this is the case all over the country.
Sadly, I talked to a poll worker today and she told me this election has put her at odds with her friends. Her voice broke when she told me her friends have all but disowned her for working at a McCain field office. Will they be friends after Nov. 4th? Will she still want them as friends after Nov. 4th? It seems to me that friends should be able to find a solution without drawing blood.
Stacy,
Some of the pundits have suggested that this might be a Democratic ploy to get McCain/Palin to spend time and money in a state that most Democrats feel safe with. It is my understanding that NY, NJ, and San Francisco, CA all begged to be leaked too. The thought of Sarah and Todd in SF makes a smile that won't go away....
Couple of interesting links:
Obama signs are being stolen in Tempe, AZ. Poor woman is caught on CNN.
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-112664
If the world could vote....
http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com/
As to the concerns about neighbors against neighbors, please pass on my sympathy to your friend. We are Obama supporters, and Obama's campaign is one of inclusion, not division. Shame on whoever made her feel wrong for her vote.
Thank her deeply for participating in the process!
-An American Liberal
i read an article on monday over at politico.com, it was about obamas friend michael signator, the article asked more questions than gave answers about the relationship, left me saying huh. anyway just curious why the right isnt on this story, i came away thinking drugs or gay was the writers intent, so google his name and see what you come up with thanks
What do you say to nonsense like this?
I tell you what, here is the link, go judge for yourself:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14713.html
For the record there is no insinuation of drugs or homosexuality. Where do people come up with this?
-An American Liberal
Hi, I am a chinese money manager in SEAsia. It is refreshing to see intelligent americans like you who are not taken in by the lies and hype of the Obama campaign.
95% of all my colleagues agree that an Obama presidency would be a disaster for the american economy and also for world markets.
Also we don't give a damn if he's black because we are chinese.
I just hope that you americans aren't dumb or racist enough to vote for a man who is basically a power-hungry socialist campaigning on a raft of populist lies.
Obama reminds me a lot of those SEAsian dictators we used to have, commiting genocide and repression with a smirk(like Obama) and sarcastic comment.
I could go thru all the reasons why Obama is a bad choice: From his lies over campaign financing, Ayers, Rev Wright, Rezko, to his absurd and imaginary economic plans, to his madness over foreign policy and national security, to the very possible fact that his campaign and career may be largely financed by arabs, etc.
But the main reason is that I always feel insulted if a public figure Obama thinks I am stupid enough to believe his lies and false promises. I am not even american, but when I see him blathering and stuttering out his lies, I get irritated.
We see people like him all the time: In my line, they are the ones trying to sell you american Mortgage-backed Securities.
A slick conman.
Sadly, every once in a while you americans go mad and choose a crazy leader......just like us chinese with Mao and the various other crazies.
Good luck and hope you all don't suffer too much.
Sigmundringeck
The polls we, the public, are looking at are notoriously off. I understood from some analysts - I do not remember, maybe it was CNN around the 2nd debate - saying the campaigns have their own set of pollsters, more accurate than this avalanche of random data. I prefer to think that is the case. It would be sad if our future leaders would make decisions based on the data sets "I" have access to.
The polls make me insane.
Btw . . . we, too, are not posting our McCain/Palin sign in our yard because we expect vandalism if we do. Isn't it funny that the world has turned so that admitting to being a Republican or Conservative is the rebellious underground?? I find that amusing now that I am in my 40s lol.
Best to all, and whomever wins, best to our country!
I dunno - maybe they are luring him into spending money there instead of places like Colo.
Look at the claims Zogby is making.
Independents +27 for Obama?
military only +3% for Mccain?
These are fantasy polls.
Do not let them suppress turnout.
Of course the polls are "off" and Obama knows it. Why else would he buy 30 minutes of prime time TV on 3 networks? Think of the money that must cost. The entire point of the Obama lead in the polls is so they can call it a "stolen election".
People are afraid to tell a pollster (who has their phone number) they are not voting Obama, afraid to put a sticker on their car, afraid to put a sign in their yard. They won't be afraid in the voting booth.
As to violence after the election - that's coming in certain areas no matter who wins. It will be in either Joy or Anger but it will happen.
We can thank Obama, his ACORN wing and the MSM for this.
Some interesting points and it is a bit of a head scratcher.
I try to keep it simple when trying to sort through such a complex situation. So I ask:
Why would a state with many more registered democrats that went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 turn and go Republican in 2008? We can only hope Murtha isn't providing the answer (someone stick a sock in his mouth)
Second, what kind of gross mathematical error would lead to such invalid polling numbers? We all know some polls have bias and some are more accurate than others but by and large they utilize fairly well established data collection methods. How could they ALL be so wrong?
The media time buys are easy. It puts pressure on the other party to match it and McCain has to decide where his money is best spent.
RJ
Seriously folks. I'm not trying to be insulting here, but I think it is time for Rebublicans and conservatives to come to grip with reality. The polls are not some grand conspiracy theory and they are not all wrong. Many of these polls are from respected nonpartisan organizations. I know that when you live in conservative islands in this country, its easy to think that most Americans support McCain. But the truth is that this year there are many more communities in America that are tilting Obama. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the American people are frustrated with the course of the nation and right or wrong, most people blame Bush and the Republicans. Unfortunatly for McCain, he will suffer from this national frustration. Bottom line is, it's time for Republicans to come to terms with the fact that Obama may actually win. All the conspiracy theorists who say otherwise sound as bad as the left-wing crazies.
There is a gut suspicion among a lot of people that the polls are way off or are oversampling certain demographics.
I've seen polls that give Democrats a 13 point edge in participation (41% identified themselves as Democrat/28% Republican/31% Independent) which seems rather high to me.
Having said that, I believe it's wishful thinking on the part of McCain supporters to believe that all the polls are off.
However, one thing that would make the internal pollsters of the DNC nervous (and give hope to the RNC pollsters) is if they're finding that while the support for Obama is indeed very wide (ranging over 50%) that it's tepid at best among a key demographic or demographics.
By that I mean, the polling numbers may very well be right on if you assume that the respondants will actually vote. The "unknown" is how many of the people that are less than enthused about voting for Obama, but currently indicate they will vote for him actually will go vote.
If the victory seems inevitable, many of those "soft" supporters may decide to sit this one out rather than vote.
I know this is generally accounted for in the Likely Voter versus Registered Voter denotations of polls, but this is a strange election.
1) Calling yourself "Republican" in some areas takes real guts right now. Many people may be avoiding polls and pollsters for reasons that have nothing to do with Race.
2) Obama is outspending McCain 2 to 1 in some states (and 3 to 1 in others) so this whole thing has an air of "he can't possibly lose".
3) I think there is overwhelming enthusiasm for Obama among about half of the self-identified Democrats out there and moderate to low enthusiasm from the other half.
4) The same thing holds true for McCain with a part of his "base" being ramped up for this election and the rest terribly unimpressed with him as the Nominee.
5) Palin is the big "draw" in the campaign. I can't remember an election where a VP candidate could show up somewhere, hold a rally and outdraw ANY of the other candidates on either ticket.
6) American voters increasingly distrust the media, so the cheerleading for Obama could have an unknown or possibly negative effect.
This election cycle is going to be a real test of the "for" versus "against" theory of politics. We know that a huge segment of Left leaning to Moderately Left Leaning voters are going to show up on Nov 4th. The question is how many of the "soft" supporters will show up (in states like PA where the polls show Obama wiping McCain out). We know that there is a segment of "anti" Obama voters out there that will definitely show up on November 4th who are not voting McCain/Palin, but instead are voting against Obama/Biden. The Republican base will certainly show up (despite luke warm enthusiasm for McCain).
The two other wild cards are:
1) How do the independents REALLY break in the voting booth? A clear margin of victory among real independent voters for a very left leaning candidate would be at odds with historical trends.
2) How many Obama "supporters" who aren't really enthusiastic about the idea of him as President step in the booth on November 4th and hesitate for just a second, then decide "I can't do it, I just don't know/trust him enough to give him my vote, but heck it doesn't matter anyway since he's up by a gazillion points." and make a decision to cover themselves "both ways" by voting for McCain?
I think there will be a lot of that (in both directions honestly) where people actually slightly favor one or the other, but vote for the other guy so they can convince themselves (no matter what happens down the road) that they "supported" the right candidate.
Unfortunately for the Democrats with the "miles wide and inch deep" support for Obama (a good description I think) and the fact that he really should be up by 15 to 20 points right now, I think a lot of those voters will break for McCain or that a few million people will "opt out" of the responsibility for putting him in the Presidency by simply not voting at all if they think he's going to win and win big.
for the first time in my life I see people afraid to publicly admit they do not support a cetain candidate. The polls show the Joe the plumber effect. I am afraid to admit to a pollster I will vote for McCain too. No one wants Obama and his media brown shirt to then try and destroy you.
Just a voter misses the big picture. The polls only reflect those willing to be polled and willing to be truthful.
The chilling effect of Obama and his media thugs is to mute opposition.
I don't like to post things without a link or supporting evidence, but I can't find the article. I read that McCain volunteers were asking people to put signs up, but people were saying no. They told them they had their support, but did not want to have a sign for fear of retribution
I think most of the posters on this topic are correct in their comments.
Most of what “just a voter” says addresses a large contingency of voters. Yes, a huge amount of voters are cautious about revealing their preference in fear; therefore I feel the polls are completely inadequate. I get a lot of “fact gathering” phone calls from both sides and they obviously have my phone number since they called me. If I work the polls for the opposition, they have my license number.
The U.S. is a scary place to be right now and the rest of the world is watching: and some of them and are ready and willing to attack while we are distracted fighting with each other. Perhaps that has been the plan all along - - - divide and conquer.
This election has brought out the worst in people and has divided friends and family. Did we do that all by ourselves or has this been the intent of the opposition all along - - - divide and conquer?
With internet usage more widespread and being readily available to so many more people than in previous elections, is it any wonder that this election is significantly different from those in the past? With the current MSM obviously biased for one candidate, is it any wonder that we are not getting the facts we require to make an honest decision? With the advent of such enormous quantities of money available to only one candidate, is it any surprise that he can afford Hollywood theatrics to produce the outcome that he desires?
If it wasn’t for the hypnotic affect he has on our youth and vast numbers of woman who “love him”, he would not even be considered for a position that he is not qualified to fulfill. One can only hope that the husbands of these smitten females will nullify their vote at the poles by voting for the opposition.
The most horrifying thought is we may wake up Nov. 5th and find we have acquired a Democratic President, a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate - - - God help us all if Nancy Pelosi is allowed free reign over our lives!
Obama +11...fivethirtyeight win % in PA 98%...
Time to rejoin reality, Right-wingers...Toto and the Tin Man won't help you escape Obama's election to the presidency.
Another vote for simplicity. As I'm sure all posters here are aware this is a hot topic all over the web.
The simplest explanation may be the best. To Wit: Pour your heart and soul into a state with a big payoff versus trying to cover several smaller ones.
Easier and more economical for McCain to go back and forth from Ohio to PA and vice versa.
Of course, Obama can definitely still win, even if he loses PA, OH, and FL, as long as he takes IA, CO, NM, NV, and VA (270-268). If you'd told anyone several months ago that a candidate could lose those three traditional swing states and win the election, they'd have laughed you out of the room.
RJ
Please Please make this be true! I do not want to think what would happen if "that one" is elected!
Ags for McCain ... Beat the Hell Outta ... Oboma Biden Whoop!!!!!
Hey my football team is not giving me much to cheer about this year, so I have to resort to politics for my sport this fall.
Good afternoon!
While it is absolutely possible that the polls are not reflective of the general populace, the massive early election turnout is not a favorable sign for McCain. Early voter turnout is usually indicative of people who are excited about their candidate, and I think we can all agree that Obama has "excited" his base far more than McCain.
My prediction, Obama wins in a landslide. I think many conservatives will sit on their hands through this election. They do not support Obama, but they can't bring themselves to pull the lever for McCain (his campaign tactics disgust them). Many of them have been demoralized into inaction.
Murdock might not help Obama, but Republican Rep. Michelle Bachmann sure as heck didn't help either herself, McCain, nor the Republican Party. Her opposition - who was behind in the polls - raised over $800,000 since Friday. He has also narrowed the gap in the polls considerably, and there is a possibility that she will lose her seat. It seems the fine people of Minnesota aren't too fond of divisive comments that are clearly shades of McCarthyism.
With everything said though, the Republican Party is still a force to be reckoned with. Despite everything going against them, they sure as heck have put up a fight. I will leave it to others to debate whether it was a "good and honorable" fight.
-An American Liberal
Talked to a woman today that said she donated to the Obama campaign and they have been hounding her ever since for more and more money. She’ll just have to get used to it because the way he spends money on himself, his hand will be in her pocket for the next four years. Unfortunately, his hand will be in our pockets as well. I thought his grand “victory” party would be dumped on the taxpayers, but I understand the media will be required to “donate” if they want to be included.
“The best funded political campaign in the history of the world will be charging media to cover its “election-night celebration in Chicago.”
A memo sent to news organizations on Tuesday by the Obama campaign says credentials will cost $715 to $1,815, depending on whether electrical and phone lines are needed and whether an indoor or outdoor seat is requested for the event, which is expected to be held outside the evening of Nov. 4 in Grant Park.
The only free admissions are for a “general media” area. But, the memo says, “Please note that the general media area is outdoors, unassigned and may have obstructed views . . . standing room only.”
The area also does not include access to top Obama campaign officials, whose statements likely are to be in hot demand on Election Night. They apparently will be available only in the “press file” tent, to which an additional admission fee of $935 per person is being imposed.
Obama aides declined to answer questions about why a campaign that raised $150 million in the month of September is demanding such payments. But the memo already is drawing some protest.
At the Sun-Times is a list of the “coverage resource packages available for purchase” from the Obama campaign.
FROM THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN….
The following coverage resource packages are available for purchase:
* Main Riser Position - $935 (Includes 4 Main Riser Credentials, 5′x8′ Slot on Covered Main Riser and one 20 amp circuit)
* Main Riser Position with Telecommunications - $1870 (Includes Main Riser Position services, PLUS two unlimited long distance/local phone lines and one wired high speed internet connection)
* Cut Riser Position - $880 (Includes 4 Cut Riser Credentials, 5′x8′ Slot on Covered Cut Riser, one 20 amp circuit)
* Cut Riser Position with Telecommunications - $1815 (Includes Cut Riser Position services, PLUS two unlimited long distance/local phone lines and one wired high speed internet connection)
* Press File Seat - $935 (includes 1 Press File Credential, seat in heated Press File Tent, Power, Cable Television, High Speed Wired Internet Service, Catering)
* Satellite Truck Position - $900 (includes 35′x20′ parking position and 100 amp electrical service)
* Radio Position - $715 (includes table space and chair behind the riser, power and an ISDN BRI line for radio — comes with two credentials)
Billing information must be submitted at as part of the request. Your credit card will not be charged until the campaign confirms your coverage resource package request. Coverage resource packages must be requested at:
http://www.barackobama.com/pressbilling
Additional services may be purchased a la carte:
* Unlimited Long Distance Phone Line - $300
* High Speed Wired Internet - $275
* One 20 amp circuit - $165
For telephone service internet connectivity and additional power, orders must be placed by October 23rd, 2008. For questions on pricing or additional telecommunications assistance, please contact (deleted)
The following credentials may be requested at no cost:
* General Press Area - No Charge (Includes access to bike racked press area with standing room only)
You must fill out the form to the right to request each individual General Press Area credential.
Request media credentials for the Election Night event:
Credentials to access the General Media Area are available at no cost. Please note that the General Media Area is outdoors, unassigned and may have obstructed views. General Media Area credentials do not include access to riser positions, satellite truck parking or the press filing center.
Anonymous,
On your first series of comments, I can personally attest to the bull dog like determination of the Obama campaign to illicit every dollar they could from people like me.
From my lowly perspective, it was apparent early on that the Democrats were going to have to raise more than Republicans if they wished a real shot at the White House. It is unfortunate to mention this, despite our strong desire that it not be so, it was surmised that additional capital would be needed to sucessfully promote a man of color or a woman, as the party's nominee.
I would also like to mention that even with this incredible war chest, McCain still has a good chance of winning. So, the thought that we needed to be "all in", certainly seems to have been a credible thought process even to our most critical pundits.
As for the media having to cover the basic cost of their needs, and having done conventions many, many times, those costs are not outside the norm for this type of event.
Personally, I see this as a reasonable request on the part of the Obama campaign to ensure that our contributions go to support his campaign efforts. Imagine how you would feel if your contributions to McCain were being used to make MSNBC more comfortable? It could be petty for sure, but I would rather my dollars be used in battleground states. I think most would agree with that assessment?
Anyhow, this is interesting information, and just wanted to thank you for sharing it.
-An American Liberal
Stacy: I was on my way to my car to put on my brand new "Go, Sara, Go" sticker when my husband requested that I not do so. He had just seen on local TV another incident in Orlando, Fl. where a car with a McCain/Palin bumper sticker was pelted with BB's.
My friend south of Pittsburgh, just informed me that they are throwing tires through the windows of McCain headquarters around her. My sister told me they were vandalizing a McCain headquarters in her district.
Every day there is another reporting of these happenings; when are these obamathugs going to held responsible for this flagrant abuse? When are these obamathugs going to realize that this malicious intent may have enormous repercussions, but not as they had hoped; it may just make people angry enough to turn the election around for McCain. When are the MSM going to report some of the real stuff going on around them rather than fabricate glowing reports for “The One”? Do these obamathugs ever consider the eternal consequences of paying homage to their fake god?
After the attack today on a McCain worker in my area and shots fired at a McCain supporters home in Florida, I am not in the mood for your sarcasm today. Good bye.
Stacy,
I'm sorry that I was right about that attack in your area. A lot of people are going to be hurt by this nut job's actions, and the rush (by some) to exploit it.
Sigh, does this give you any sense of peace though? You seemed very upset by the prospect yesterday, and I kind of chalked it up to "real fear". Has that abated a bit?
We may not always agree, but the my thoughts of you having to huddle in your house with your children out of fear disturbed me greatly (there is absolutely no sarcasm in that statement).
Anyhow, I hope you will forgive me for getting that off my chest, and will now respect your wishes and leave your blog alone.
Warmest Wishes.
-An American Liberal
PS Hopefully, I was vague enough to keep this from somehow being offensive. If not, believe me when I say, I really tried.
Ok. The issue is not that you or RJ have left comments. It is that you have taken over the comment section. If you leave A comment for an article and I find it respectful, I would leave it, but when my regulars start emailing me privately rather than on the blog there is an issue.
One blogger even pointed out how many comments were from you....just spread your comments around to other blogs as well....kind of like our wealth...ha ha ha
I pray that every decent human being in PA, OH, and across the nation go vote for McCain/Palin. GOD bless you.
The polls news are not always accurate it may be wrong many times, the people gathered were huge in number and i don't think so anything may happen and i heard that this time hang-ups will be more.
------------
Barbie Purl
pennsylvania drug rehab
Quite useful info, much thanks for the post.
Post a Comment