If you were a passive observer of this election, you may very well agree with the public polls that you see. You may believe that not only is Barack Obama going to be our next President, but that it will be a huge blow out in his favor.
You watch the news and see that Obama is planning his $2 million election party. You read that his campaign has already started his inauguration speech. You read how his transition team is preparing for his inevitable trip to the White House.
First, Barack Obama has raised over $600 million dollars. Everyone can agree that is a huge amount of money. It is impressive by any stretch of the imagination. He has used this large sum of money to his advantage. He has spent double, triple, sometimes quadruple the amount of money on ads in battlegrounds states than John McCain.
Second, Barack Obama has used the Internet to advance his campaign like no other in our history. The way that his campaign captured email and cell phone account numbers was amazing. Just think of all of the information they gathered with the announcement of his VP candidate. (they get a pass for screwing up the actual announcement)
Third, Obama's campaign has made huge gains in voter registration. We can argue all day and night about ACORN, but the fact is that they have increased their voter rolls. Even the homeless in Ohio can claim a park bench as a residency. The Democrats have widened their party identification by huge numbers this election season.
Finally, Obama has 70-90% of the media in the tank for him. Almost all of the research and polls done on this subject show that Obama has double the positive press than John McCain. Just looking at the magazine covers will give that fact away. All of the polls have been showing Obama way up.
At this point, Conservatives, Republicans, and McCain supporters should be feeling more than a little disenfranchised and ready to throw in the towels. But here's a little secret that will give you hope...more than hope....it should make you optimistic...no it should give you a warm and fuzzy feeling. Here it is....
For all of the information I just shared, Barack Obama is not above 50% in most polls. He isn't above 50% in most of the battleground polls. This week his campaign sent out requests that he needed just $10 more from each of his supporters to help him out.
If Barack Obama is on the verge of this great blowout, why is he spending so much time in Pennsylvania this week? Why does he have both Clintons in Pennsylvania this week? Why did he feel the need to buy 30-minutes of airtime on three major networks? Why are the Clinton traveling to New Hampshire this week? Why is Barack Obama spending so much money in Pennsylvania if he really has a 10-point lead in the state?
This race is far from over. The Obama campaign may be publicly spouting their confidence (I call it arrogance), but privately there is a completely different conversation going on. His team knows that going into the final days that he must keep his head above that 50% mark or he may very well lose this election that most have already said he won.
Ask yourself this question, if you cannot seal this deal with $600 million dollars, the press in the tank, a huge advantage in voter registration, and a ground game that equals no other, what exactly will it take for you to close this deal? Are you capable of closing this deal at all? At this point in the primaries, the undecided voters went overwhelmingly to Hillary Clinton.
Can John McCain still win this race?...........................You Betcha!!!!
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
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29 comments:
You are right. If he were any other candidate, he would be way ahead. He has so many advantages. Great questions.
The Obama campaign is worried because they realize that people have lied to pollsters.
When the voting public goes into those voting booths, votes for their real choice and then the votes are tallied, Obama and his camp will see how much so.
There's potentially a HUGE surprise coming Obama's way, and I don't mean that he and the missus will need to keep measuring for drapes at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Nope.
It means he'll have to actually finish out his term as the junior senator from Illinois and suffer the embarrassment of being defeated, not calming the seas or being the one he said everyone -- well, just the intellectually and spiritually vacant or lobotomized -- have been waiting for.
This game is not over. Not by a long shot.
No wonder the Obama camp is worried.
Their candidate's facade is crumbling.
And the public is finally recognizing what an abject failure the so-called news media has been and how that same MSM has been an extension of the Obama camp, not a reporter thereof.
At what point is too much money spent on campaigns enough? There are literally starving people in our country, and yet all this money is being used for a Presidental Race...our Founding Fathers should be rolling in their graves - it's truly embarrassing! And Obama still isn't that far ahead, even after all the money.
And then 2 million on a "election" party in Chicago, where you have to have an id to get into the event, yet you don't have to have an id to vote in most states. That is screwed up!!!
I live in Pennsylvania and I've been thinking for several weeks that the polls weren't correct here. Went to McCain/Palin rally yesterday in Hershy and saw a massive crowd come out despite bad weather.
Pennsylvania has voted Republican in over 30 years, but this may be the year.
Hey Natalie-I am on the opposite side of PA near Pittsburgh. Murtha is definitely helping Obama lose PA right now, but we will take it.
I'm voting against Obama, but my vote is wasted because I live in deep blue state.
Can someone please explain to me why Pennsylvania is so key? I look at the RCP polling stats, and even if Obama loses Pennsylvania, he could win the rest of the battleground states and still win easily.
In other words, so what if Obama loses PA? He'll probably win a couple of 2004 red states and still win the election.
And I write this as a someone who is horrified at the genuine prospect of an Obama presidency.
Truth unites: 21 electoral votes. You can't ignore those even if you don't think you need them. PA is where McCain has decided to make his last stand. But...that's not why I am commenting.
I think Stacy raises some interesting questions. I would like to know the means by which she arrives at the 70 - 90% media "in the tank" for Obama figure.
Also, just from a practical perspective. I can't wrap my brain around why PA would support Gore and Kerry in losing efforts but flip to the GOP in this election.
RJ
RJ-There have been several sources that show the media bias percentages. As for the electoral map, the point is that if PA is off by so much, does it not lead you to believe that others may be as well. Why are they now fighting in CO, NH, NM? IF your're implying PA is about race, there may be a small portion of that true as with anywhere else, but these are Reagan democrats who fear one party control more than anything.
Stacy,
Not implying anything about race, just scratching my head, wondering.
RJ
The reality is -- he is closing the deal, and will do so decisively on November 4. His numbers in all the key states, where he is concentrating his focus, are rising. This is the same wishful-thinking refrain the diehard Hillary supporters chanted until he closed the deal in the nomination contest, and it will be just as hollow this time around.
Just found your blog.
I, too am a Pennsylvania blogger, as well as a Freeper.
hotelsierra.blogspot.com
I voted for Kerry and Gore, and TG neither of them won. After listening to Kerry lately, I think we moderates would have been so disappointed if he had actually become POTUS. One of Kerry’s biggest downfalls (one that I regret having to point out since I’m from Pgh.) was his wife; just as Obama’s wife is an anchor for him. Kerry’s true colors surfaced after his defeat and showed him for the vicious radical looser that he is.
Gore is, and evidently always has been, a hypocrite. While he is preaching to us conservation and green technology and receiving awards for his great humanitarian efforts on behalf of global warming, his compound uses more energy (and I’m not talking about green) than my entire neighborhood. He can talk the talk but has yet to walk the walk. Obviously, we are supposed to do as he says and not what he does.
I don’t see Obama conserving much of anything either. He lives in a house that also uses enough energy to keep my neighborhood warm throughout this winter and the next. He has wasted enough money on this election to feed my entire neighborhood for the rest of their lives and the future lives of their offspring for ten generations to come.
I know of no one that has been polled and I have yet to hear of anyone knowing anyone with that dubious honor. From articles that I have read, a large majority of those actually being polled hang up without giving any indication of their intentions on Nov. 4th. If those 50-70% hang-ups are considering voting for McCain, Obama is in deep trouble and all the money he has selfishly wasted on himself and his humungous ego, the corruption and fraud he has orchestrated will be nothing but a testament to a traitor of truth, justice and the American way.
Not just Americans, but people all over the world can no longer trust the media for honest reporting. They are guilty of manipulating the truth according to their own agenda and must be purged of corruption just as we need to purge the Congress and Senate of these corrupt free-loading dregs of humanity. They have purposely divided this country and dug up the seeds of hate and bigotry that we thought were dead and buried. I have heard some youths threatening that if Obama looses this election they are going on a rampage of destruction; if ever we were in a position for invasion, this could be the time. Thank you DNC, Pelosi, Reid, Dean, et al, in winning the battle you may well be loosing the war.
I have to agree with lebeau0605. If Barack Obama spends the U.S. money the way he is spending his campaign's we are all in trouble. I think it is ridiculous that he has bought airtime on the major networks tonight. I for one will be watching reruns of CSI Miami on cable! He has raised an questionably high amount of money, after going back on his commitment to join John McCain in taking matching funds, thus limiting the amount he could raise. If anyone heard Fox News reporting this morning about the differences between his donation website and McCain's, one might understand how he has done it. No need to match your identification with your credit card...anyone with a credit card can donate, from wherever and under any name!
Dear Stacy, I'm sending the following out to many Sarah bloggers. Keep up the great work!
Dear Friend of Sarah Palin: Please keep your blog and online network of allies intact through and BEYOND the election. No matter who wins the election, many (many) Sarah for President in 2012 web sites and blogs will start appearing on Nov. 5, including a couple I will manage. Your effort -- and that of Team Sarah generally -- has been superb, but it's essential that we continue to work together. First, however, let's win this election!
Please send me a short e-mail at: TalkTop65@aol.com so we can stay in touch.
steve maloney
ambridge, pa
(One of the original "Draft Sarah for VP" advocates)
Excellent post!
The myth that Obama had a chance in NC is also fading.
I work in the local Victory office and I see many democrats coming by for McCain signs - which we cannot keep in stock because of the demand. Lots of us "bitter clingers" in NC, too.
The polls are way off.
I went to get a McCain/Palin sign at my local office as well and they were out. They told me that all of the northern Pittsburgh offices were out of signs. Does that mean anything? Who knows?
We are all biased if you want to belabor that word. The MSM is probably left leaning but why are so many papers who went for Bush 4 years ago now going the other way? Were they biased 4 years ago.?
Why isn't Obama able to close the deal? Oh come on. Because he is half black. Imagine how close it would be if he was totally black AND uppitty.
I'm from deep blue Illinois.I'm a McCain supporter and have voted.
The only poll that counts is one's vote.
Great post and comments. Despite the polls and recent history, Pennsylvania has been in play for McCain all along. Obama got creamed there by Hillary in the primaries. He alienated a lot of blue collar workers with his "bitter" comments.
The Biden choice was as much about Pennsylvania as it was shoring up Obama's nonexistent foreign policy credentials. I heard "Scranton" so much the day he was chosen that it seemed like Biden had moved back there.
Just to monitor the spin, I signed up on the Obama site several weeks ago and waited to see what they would send me. I have received infrequent emails asking for money since then but nothing specific. This week, however, I received two emails asking for help in Pennsylvania. Not exactly insider info but interesting nonetheless.
Echoing Stephen Maloney, we have to work diligently to keep Sarah Palin at the forefront of the GOP if Obama wins this election. She's our best chance for a housecleaning of the party hierarchy that's been screwing things up for several years.
Anyone seen Oprah lately? Is she pulling away from her candidate or perhaps I am just not catching the news coverage involving her. Anyone know if she is out these last few days campaigning for her guy?
Anyone seen Oprah lately? Is she pulling away from her candidate or perhaps I am just not catching the news coverage involving her. Anyone know if she is out these last few days campaigning for her guy?
Seriously, in case Rickey's last statement left any doubt in your mind: McCain will lose this by a landslide. And deservedly so.
I've had similar thoughts. If Obama is indeed winning by a comfy margin, why
(1) spend millions of dollars to
(2) have your own infomercial wherein you don't plan on saying anything new, and
(3) risk the possibility of turning off voters?
Why go through that effort?
The media presents this as a prudent decision. Obama is merely "taking nothing for granted." But even if that is true, does it not undermine the media's message that the race is practically over?
Rickey Henderson,
Your second post was as childish and uninformed as your first.
"I would like to know the means by which she arrives at the 70 - 90% media 'in the tank' for Obama figure."
I suspect the figure is closer to 98%.
The newsmedia bias has been utterly naked and brazen for the last 20 months. To deny this merely underscores the fact that you have not been carefully watching these Stalinists with microphones. I can assure you that their (1) infantile worship of Obama, (2) their consistent refusal to investigate Obama's background, (3) their hideous treatment of Sarah Palin and (4) near disregard for McCain (Obama has received considerably more coverage) has not gone unnoticed by Americans. Even as the newsmedia hemorrhages money (the New York Times bond status is now "junk") and lays off employees, they are blindly in denial. They are much like the violin players on the Titanic fiddling while the ship sinks.
Fortunately, conservatives jumped off that ship long ago. A national boycott of the newsmedia, a consistent refusal to buy their agenda, is the only thing that will change these abusers of power in the media.
I wondered this too... if the media is on his side beyond belief... if he is pandering to "95%" of workers... if he buys 30 minutes of airtime on major networks, if he is spending enough to bring several small states out of the red in their budgets... why is he only 4 or 5 points ahead...?
Are there that many clear thinking Americans left still?
This is from an Obama blogger on HillBuzz:
Sarah p Says:
October 27, 2008 at 5:04 am
Ok, I want to clear my conscious a little. Hopefully you could make a blog post to help some fellow clinton supporters out.
I work for a campaign and can’t wait for this week to be over.
I was doing it for a job. I was not a fan of any candidate but over time grew to love HRC.
The internal campaign idea is to twist, distort, humiliate and finally dispirit you.
We pay people and organize people to go to all the online sites and “play the part of a clinton or mccain supporter who just switched our support for obama”
We do this to stifle your motivation and to destroy your confidence.
We did this the whole primary and it worked.
Sprinkle in mass vote confusion and it becomes bewildering. Most people lose patience and just give up on their support of a candidate and decide to just block out tv, news, websites, etc.
This surprisingly has had a huge suppressing movement and vote turnout issues.
Next, we infiltrate all the blogs and all the youtube videos and overwhelm the voting, the comments, etc. All to continue this appearance of overwhelming world support.
People makes posts to the effect that the world has “gone mad”
Thats the intention. To make you feel stressed and crazy and feel like the world is ending.
We have also had quite a hand in skewing many many polls, some we couldn’t control as much as we would have liked. But many we have spoiled over. Just enough to make real clear politics look scarey to a mccain supporter. Its worked, alough the goal was to appear 13-15 points ahead.
see, the results have been working. People tend to support a winner, go with the flow, become “sheeple”
The polls are roughly 3-5 points in favor of Barack. Thats due to our inflation of the polls and pulling in the sheeple.
Our donors, are the same people who finance the MSM. Their interests are tied, Barack then tends to come across as teflon. Nothing sticks. And trust, there were meetings with Fox news. The goal was to blunt them as much as possible. Watch Bill Oreilly he has become much more diplomatic and “fair and balanced” and soft. Its because he wants to retain the #1 spot on cable news and to do that he has to have access to the Obama campaign and we worked hard at stringing him a long and keeping him soft for an interview swap. It worked and now he is anticipating more access. So he is playing it still soft.
This is why nothing sticks.
The operation is massive, the goal is to paint a picture that is that of a winner, regardless of the results.
There is no true inauguration draft or true grant park construction going on. There will be a party, but we are boasting beyond the truth to make it seem like the election is wrapped up.
Our goal is to continue to make you lose your moral. We worked hard at persuasion and paying off and timing and playing the right political numbers to get key republican endorsements to make it seem even more like it was over and the world was coming to an end for you all.
There is a huge staff of people working around the clock, watching every site, blogs, etc. We flood these sites. We have had a goal to overwhelm.
The truth is here. I could go on and on, but you get the picture.
I am saying this because I know HRC was better for the country, and now realize this. I was too late by the time I connected to her. To me Barack was just a cool young dude that seemed like a star. I didn’t know him or his policies, but now I understand more than I care to and I realize his interests are more for him, and the DNC and all working like puppets with dean. I always thought a president wanted the better good for the country. The end result I see is everyone dependent on the government, this means more and more people voting for the DNC. This means the future is forever altered. I don’t see this as america, so I am now supporting John Mccain.
Sarah Palin is a huge threat, and our campaign has feared her like you can’t imagine. If it seems unfair how she has been treated, well its because she has had a team working round the clock to make her look like a fool.
this is a big conspiracy and I am so shocked that its not realized.
We released a little blurb the other day that the Obama campaign was already working on reelection and now putting our efforts towards 2012. This was to make it seem like it was above us to continue caring about 2008. Trust me, its a lie. David is very smart, but its a sticky ugly not very truthful kind of intelligence.
Its not over yet, but I think the machine is working. And its a hill to climb.
I will be quitting my post on nov 5th and my vote will be for John Mccain. Fortunately, my position has been a marketing position and I don’t feel I had any part of anything I would feel guilty for. But I look forward to getting out of this as the negativity and environment upsets me.
I wish you all well, and goodluck.
PS my name is not really sarah. but I am a female and I understand your plight.
Anony... thanks for the post by Sarah... dont know if it is true or not, but at least now i feel manipulated which is better than beleiving the country is about to go to pot.
Foreign policy and the war on terror have taken a back seat as issues and rightfully so.Thomas Sowell is an African American journalist. I believe enough smart people will vote for McCain to elect him.
Here’s his excerpt which I copied…..
October 30, 2008
“What the Middle East fanatics want is not just our resources or even our lives, but our humiliation first, in whatever sadistic ways they can think of. Their lust for humiliation has already been repeatedly demonstrated in their videotaped beheadings that find such an eager market in the Middle East. None of this can be prevented by glib talk, but only by character, courage and decisive actions – none of which Barack Obama has ever demonstrated.”
Thomas Sowell
Columnist
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